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We find an unprecedented increase in SAT over the NBS of up to 2.7 C per decade annually at Karl XII-øya in northeastern Svalbard, with a maximum in autumn of up to 4.0 C per decade. The warming is greater than hitherto known in this region and exceptional on the Arctic and global scale. We show that the warming is strongly linked, both in space and time, to the large reduction of sea ice and increased SST and that the observed temperature increase is in good agreement with the reanalysis. Our results additionally demonstrate that while CARRA and ERA5 reproduce the gross features of the observed trends, CARRA does it with more spatial details and larger regional SAT trends.
We found an unprecedented increase in annual SAT of up to 2.7 C per decade at Karl XII-øya. The highest warming rates were found in the northern and eastern parts of the Barents area and were up to twice as high than hitherto known in this region from reference station series in the western and southern part. Our results additionally demonstrated that while CARRA and ERA5 reproduced the gross features of the observed trends, CARRA shows more spatial details and larger regional SAT trends. The regional warming rate for the Northern Barents Sea region is exceptional and corresponds to 2 to 2.5 times the Arctic warming averages and 5 to 7 times the global warming averages. Finally, we showed that the warming has been strongly linked, both in space and time, to the large reduction of sea ice and increased SST. Our results also documented a stronger SIC-SAT relation than previously known for the northern Barents Sea with both local and regional relations that varies among seasons.
Surface Air Temperature observations from the Russian weather stations can be downloaded from the Russian Scientific Research Hydrometeorological Institute (www.meteo.ru), AARI archives of historical weather and climate data (www.aari.ru) and Russian patent archive ( -web/publications).
The study is based on Russian-Norwegian collaboration (AARI/SPbSU-MET Norway) between 2019 and 2021. This study was funded by the Ministry of Climate and Environment in Norway, Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway), Arctic and Antarctic Research institute (AARI) and Saint-Petersburg State University (SPbSU) and the ESA-project Cryosphere Virtual Laboratory- CVL (ESRIN/Contract 40000128808/19/I-NS). Andreas Dobler downloaded and converted the CARRA data to NetCDF. Julia Lutz smoothed the English. The contribution of all persons and institutions mentioned is gratefully acknowledged.
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